Advanced Web Ranking's Forecasting feature helps, among others, foretell the organic visits, conversions, and revenue that can be achieved if the ranking target selected is reached.

The Forecasting algorithm works as an estimation and it is based on the ranking position, search volume, and CTR recorded by the non-brand keywords you added for monitoring in AWR.

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💡 The Forecast is calculated for all keywords selected as input except those that are assigned to the Branded group. The CTR for branded keywords is considerably higher than the CTR of non-brand keywords, this is why they are excluded from the Forecast.

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Simply put, this feature helps one understand how achieving higher ranking positions impacts the business in terms of conversions and revenue.

But it can be also used to:

  • Set realistic objectives for running SEO campaigns.

  • Track the monthly progress of the set objectives vs. real achievements and immediately adjust the campaigns, so the SEO objectives are met.

  • Visualize the Year-over-Year search trend of keywords.

  • See the actual organic traffic received from non-branded searches.

  • Monitor the inertial traffic and see how the website will perform based on search seasonality or if no SEO efforts are invested.

Setting up the Forecast

The Forecasting section allows one to create new forecasts and also monitor the evolution of the existing ones.

Configuring a new Forecast is a simple and intuitive process, all one has to do is to choose a relevant name and a series of parameters as follows:

Timeframe

The length of time during which the Forcast will be calculated. One can choose between 6, 9, or 12 months.

Search Engine

The selected search engine dictates how the search volume for each keyword is retrieved from Google Ads. Only the search volume for the country selected at the search engine level is taken into account for the Forecast.

The Forecast calculation is affected also by the search engine’s device. One can choose to forecast visits either on Desktop or Mobile.

Performance over time

This parameter allows selecting the speed for the progress toward the forecasted goal. One can choose between Linear or Exponential progress.

The Linear curve adds the same amount of progress every month, while the Exponential curve starts slow and then picks up the pace towards the end of the forecast.

CTR Values

This parameter allows choosing the type of CTR curve that will be used in the Forecast. The data for the CTR curves comes from our CTR Study.

There are 3 types of CTRs one can choose from:

SERP and device-based

This is the recommended option and when selected, the forecasting algorithm looks at the SERP features showing up for each keyword and uses the CTR curve that matches all the keywords that we have in our database with the same SERP features. The device (Desktop or Mobile) is also taken into consideration. This choice gives you the most accurate CTR curve.

Global

When this option is selected, the forecast is calculated using a global average CTR curve regardless of any SERP features that may appear in the results.

Custom

This option allows one to enter a custom CTR which will be used for forecasting.

Conversion rate (%)

This is a website’s conversion rate, which can be taken from an analytics tool or can be calculated by dividing the number of achieved conversions by the number of total interactions. For example, if there are 50 conversions from 1,000 interactions, the conversion rate would be 5%.

Average order value

This represents the average amount spent by a customer when placing an order on a website. It can be calculated by simply dividing the total revenue by the number of orders recorded.

Setting a target for the Forecast

A Forecast is an estimation of achieving a ranking target in a selected timeframe. Basically, this refers to the keywords (all vs. specific keyword groups) selected and for which the estimation that they will reach the targeted rank (1-3, 1-5, or 1-10 positions) is made.

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💡 If the same keyword is included in more than one group, it will only be taken into consideration once, with its highest targeted rank.

Also, only keywords that have search volume amounts are taken into account, when calculating the monthly forecasted traffic.

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The Forcast’s output

Once the keywords, the target rank, and all the other parameters are selected and saved, the Forecast will be calculated.

The Forecast's output data can be split into 2 categories as follows:

Aggregated forecast data

This means that all the values listed in the KPI tabs and also in the chart are calculated for all the non-brand keywords included in the Forecast.

Forecast Status

The Forecast Status is a percentage that shows the current trend of the Forecast and it is calculated by comparing the Forecasted Visits with the Actual Visits.

Forecasted Visits = Inertial Visits + Additional Visits

Inertial Visits = the number of visits estimated to be received in the selected time frame, assuming that there would be no changes in the ranking positions for any keyword in the Forecast.

Additional Visits = the number of additional visits estimated to be received in the selected time frame, assuming that the targeted rankings are reached in the last month of the campaign.

Actual / Forecasted Visits

Actual Visits = the actual number of visits received in the selected time frame, given the current ranking positions for each keyword in the Forecast.

Forecasted Visits = the total number of visits estimated to be received in the selected time frame, assuming that the desired ranking positions would be reached in the last month of the campaign.

The visits estimates are calculated using the corresponding CTR for the ranking position and the search volume for each keyword.

Search Volume

The total average searches of the keywords included in the forecast, for the selected period and search engine’s country, as given by Google Ads.

YoY Search Trends

This percentage shows the current trend of the search volume year over year.

It’s an average across all the keywords in the Forecast and it is calculated by comparing the search volume from the current year with the one from the previous year.

Keywords

The number of keywords included in the forecast from the total amount tracked in your project.

Refresh button

By default, Forecasts are updated once a month, taking into account the first ranking update for that month. Use this Refresh button to see an updated Forecast based on the latest ranking update from the current month.

Additional Visits

The number of additional visits estimated to be received in the selected time frame, assuming that the targeted rankings are reached in the last month of the campaign.

Additional Conversions

The number of additional conversions estimated to be received in the selected time frame, given the additional estimated visits.

Additional Revenue

The additional revenue estimated to be received in the selected time frame, given the additional conversions.

Google Ads Value

The estimated cost of getting the same number of additional visits via Google Ads. This cost is calculated for each keyword, considering the individual estimated visits and CPCs.

Forecast data per keyword

All the values listed in the table are calculated for each non-brand keyword included in the Forecast.

Initial Position

The ranking position for each keyword at the moment the Forecast was created.

Actual Position

The actual ranking position for each keyword taken from the latest ranking update.

Target Position

The desired ranking range to be reached at the end of the Forecast period.

Click Share

Estimated percentage of clicks from all the searches. It is calculated using the selected CTR curve in the Forecast and the actual ranking position.

When you hover your mouse over the click share, you can see the actual CTR for each position and the SERP features that appear for that keyword. The lines in green show the actual positions that your website ranks for that keyword. The SERP features that your website ranks for are shown in green.

Search Volume + YoY

Search Volume = the total number of searches for the selected period of time, as given by Google Ads. The search volume taken into account is only for the country of the search engine included in the Forecast. This Search Volume includes the YoY trend that is displayed after it.

The months that are part of the selected period of time are shown in orange. Only these months are included in the Search Volume.

YoY Trend = this percentage shows the current trend of the search volume year over year. It is calculated by comparing the search volume from the current year with the one from the previous year.

Additional Visits

The number of additional visits estimated to be received in the selected time frame, assuming that the targeted rankings for this keyword will be reached in the last month of the campaign.

Additional Conversions

The number of additional conversions estimated to be received in the selected time frame, given the additional estimated visits.

Additional Revenue

The additional revenue estimated to be received in the selected time frame, given the additional conversions.

Feature availability

The forecasting feature is available for all types of plans available, as follows:

  • Agency, Enterprise monthly plans, and all yearly subscriptions can create an unlimited number of forecasts per account & per project.

  • Pro monthly plans are limited to 1 forecast per project.

  • Trials & Starter monthly plans are limited to 1 forecast per account.

Do you have any other questions? Don’t hesitate to get in touch and we will keep building the FAQ.

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